Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1897
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 22:58:25

ACUS11 KWNS 072258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072257=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...New Jersey

Concerning...Tornado Watch 605...

Valid 072257Z - 080030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 605 continues.

SUMMARY...Squall line will surge across New Jersey this evening.
Damaging winds are the primary risk, though a brief tornado or two
remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Primary short-wave trough has advanced into the upper
OH Valley, extending from southeast ON into eastern OH. MCS has
evolved well ahead of this feature with a surging squall line now
advancing across southeast PA/northern DE. Latest radar data
suggests an MCV has evolved over Chester County PA and this is
indicative of the organized nature of this cluster. With surface
temperatures in the lower 80s across NJ, MLCAPE values are
seasonally high with values around 1500 J/kg immediately ahead of
the surging bow. Leading edge of the bow should track across central
NJ over the next hour or so, eventually approaching western portions
of Long Island with an attendant wind threat.

...Darrow.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!790n_Hp0F0_Dsny6R1GN5OeeYaY0AhOcxqpg1ItujmYqNL0kKKWfZQO7LYk2kvf-mneMViBmU=
Yov4MbunVeN0_UkR6E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON   39897377 39137571 40737582 41077417 39897377=20


=3D =3D =3D
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