Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1896
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 22:50:23

ACUS11 KWNS 072250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072250=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-080045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado to western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606...

Valid 072250Z - 080045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells across the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska tri-state
area will continue to pose a very-large-hail and severe-wind risk
prior to gradual upscale growth into an organized MCS across western
Kansas. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed over the past 2
hours across the CO/NE/KS tri-state area along a residual outflow
boundary/baroclinic zone. Very large hail up to 2.75 inches
(estimated) has been reported, as well as near-severe wind gusts.
These cells are expected to persist over the next hour or so as they
migrate southeast into an MLCAPE maximum. New development along a
residual boundary across eastern CO also appears underway, which
should result in at least a couple of splitting supercells given
favorable buoyancy and elongated, nearly-straight hodographs. As
such, the potential for very large hail should continue and will
likely be focused across far eastern CO into northwest KS.=20

Upstream from these supercells, a cluster of thunderstorms is
starting to demonstrate cold-pool organization along the CO/NE
border per KGLD velocity imagery. With deep-layer shear vectors
nearly orthogonal to this developing line, further intensification
appears possible. This line will likely propagate to the southeast
along a diffuse warm frontal zone, eventually interacting with the
northwest KS supercells. This may foster further upscale growth into
an MCS over parts of northwest KS later this evening. This scenario
is depicted by a few runs of recent hi-res guidance, and if/when
this occurs, a more robust severe wind threat may emerge. This
scenario will continue to be monitored, and downstream watch
issuance is possible.

...Moore.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!61JDJGxKdPHDXbrp-1Nt2zFk5vGJ5uQfXZv4iMQOTcnuR6rmonV1PvYgtCgsu_wrTNyPsUmZu=
7g3oyqEfIGcnm7l1DA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37730024 37730129 38000231 39360393 39850395 40520308
            40850198 40650085 40019934 39499907 38729889 38049944
            37730024=20


=3D =3D =3D
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