Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1895
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 22:41:56

ACUS11 KWNS 072241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072241=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-080045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 072241Z - 080045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along an outflow boundary over
eastern New Mexico will continue to intensify and migrate into
southern High Plains over the next several hours. This activity may
pose a severe-wind risk for eastern New Mexico and West Texas.
Trends will be monitored for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-60 minutes, convective activity along
a remnant outflow boundary has increased, with several strong
convective towers noted in IR imagery and lightning trends. This
activity is expected to increase in coverage and intensity as it
migrates east into an environment with better buoyancy (MUCAPE on
the order of 2000 J/kg). Inhibition remains a challenge over West TX
where a residual cold pool from early-morning convection remains in
place, but strong effective shear (40-50 knots) may compensate for
the modest buoyancy and support storm organization into one or more
clusters/line segments. Low-level thermodynamics do not optimally
support dry downbursts, but continued boundary-layer heating should
allow for at least a few strong/severe gusts. This potential will
likely increase if a one or more organized lines can become
established. Trends will continue to be monitored, and watch
issuance is possible.

...Moore/Edwards.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-nDjXJoPX89nKIW5Gi06BdP7Ds0Gyf-OU98LacCiKFz5AaB5-f5iG9hSjdYJnzsVoYlztSBDk=
18JEqIDAwpNgR9vjqI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33670417 34890392 35180332 35140224 34630127 34130086
            33260078 32750119 32560187 32610282 32750342 32880387
            33670417=20


=3D =3D =3D
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