Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1894
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 21:48:24

ACUS11 KWNS 072148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072147=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-072345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607...

Valid 072147Z - 072345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized bowing line segment moving across North
Carolina will likely continue eastward for the next couple of hours,
regionally increasing the severe/damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and lightning trends show
a steady intensification of a bowing line segment across western NC
over the past hour. Velocity data from KRAX as well as VWP
observations from KMRX hint at the development of a rear inflow jet,
which corroborates the noted radar/lightning trends. Although recent
RAP mesoanalyses hint at a slight buoyancy deficit immediately ahead
of this segment across central NC, modest warm/moist advection from
the surface to 925/850 mb will likely help improve the downstream
thermodynamic environment ahead of the line. Additionally, 30-40
knot effective-shear vectors oriented nearly orthogonal to the line
will compensate for any thermodynamic deficiencies and continue to
support line organization. Consequently, there may be a corridor of
regionally higher severe/damaging wind potential across central NC
over the next 1-2 hours.

...Moore.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5eauUhksy44rVkbEmhGyBUlAokVvlF7n6HeJhlQwSSOKpD7HPT4Jem-GNr6o49jgdfs-gDBTJ=
0AMbTk4siy_4QzQTKI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35368109 35788071 36178049 36327979 36377796 36137783
            35727785 35227810 34777855 34797932 34898040 35078104
            35368109=20


=3D =3D =3D
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