Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1892
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 20:40:52

ACUS11 KWNS 072040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072040=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-072215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and northern Virginia into
central Maryland and southern to central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Tornado Watch 602...

Valid 072040Z - 072215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 602 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 602.
Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat, but a couple of
tornadoes may still occur with supercells or line-embedded
circulations.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS has developed across western MD into northern
VA, which is preceded and flanked (to the south) by relatively
discrete, longer lived supercell structures. Near 90F surface
temperatures reside ahead of the QLCS, suggesting ample boundary
layer heating and buoyancy are available to support several damaging
gusts over the next few hours. A couple instances of large hail may
still occur with ongoing supercells. Furthermore, the 850 mb
southwesterly low-level jet axis continues to shunt eastward over
the central Appalachians and may still overspread portions of the
Mid Atlantic by evening. Should this occur, low-level shear may
increase further, supporting the development of a couple of
tornadoes with either ongoing supercells or line-embedded
circulations.

...Squitieri.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5RyhrgwONWJg8pl7UQEb64aRBzFkwfybNUado2r8_6oGPaTHESTtbW-RjUw_pkkPpTgR_eQMl=
fSSCbYVwenG32-mBu0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37777883 38087906 39697797 41557668 41507643 40967626
            40247614 39737628 39147635 38507657 38077681 37667732
            37777883=20


=3D =3D =3D
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