Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1889
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 19:59:53

ACUS11 KWNS 071959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071959=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Central Georgia into central South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071959Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are initially developing within strongly buoyant
airmass in Georgia and South Carolina. A greater organized wind
damage threat will exist as a line of storms approaches from the
west. A watch is possible for parts of Georgia into the central
South Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Strong buoyancy (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) has developed in
parts of Georgia into South Carolina as temperatures have risen into
the mid/upper 90s F. With convective temperatures being breached, a
few storms have developed in central Georgia. This environment,
however, is currently weakly sheared and lacks large-scale ascent.
Farther to the north and west, a more organized line of storms
continues to east-southeast. Initial strong to near-severe
convection is possible in the buoyancy axis with some potential for
strong downdrafts. The potential for severe/damaging wind gusts will
increase in association with the organized convective line later
this afternoon into early evening. Both large-scale ascent and
deep-layer shear should increase along with low-level winds as the
main synoptic trough sags slightly southward. A watch is possible
for parts of these areas this afternoon.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6r42ut7zy4cQVtYV7Izkos-i9mQgKy8mudr_-g8L4ahKcwdbxSAYXeWrVvRjmGtqhSlG0SOu9=
RfgPM267HdORaseQ4g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32378467 33088437 34138223 34938057 35047983 34607951
            33588006 32748134 32078328 32168407 32378467=20


=3D =3D =3D
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