Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1888
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 19:17:53

ACUS11 KWNS 071917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071917=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-072045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...central into northern Virginia...eastern
Maryland...southern into central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Tornado Watch 602...

Valid 071917Z - 072045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 602 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 602.
Large hail and damaging gusts are the main threat in the short-term,
but the tornado risk should continue to steadily increase through
the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells and quasi-linear structures
are progressing eastward across the central Appalachians into the
Mid Atlantic this afternoon, some with a history of severe hail and
damaging gusts. Given the favorable ambient buoyancy/deep-layer
shear preceding the ongoing storms, the supercells and quasi-linear
structures should maintain intensity, with the large hail/damaging
gust threat continuing. At the moment, regional VADs and forecast
soundings show hodographs with relatively straight curvature, which
may be limiting the current tornado threat to a degree. However, as
the mid-level trough continues to approach and shunts the 850 mb
southwesterly jet axis eastward, an increase in low-level hodograph
length and perhaps curvature should ensue, which would support an
increased tornado threat later this afternoon.

...Squitieri.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9BVzq1-d4t6ihiWzsTqKJY_wGdsj_IXnAEaSXWmgGjRtPET1Djqa7BlKxkfqn-vua8yRFSRDn=
X8VXDvFYjmFbt5AyuE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38007913 39307871 40877805 41787725 41657659 40817624
            39867607 39127622 38207642 37917668 37727731 37707803
            38007913=20


=3D =3D =3D
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