Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1887
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 19:14:51

ACUS11 KWNS 071914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071914=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1887
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...northeast Colorado...northwest
Kansas...southwest Nebraska and Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071914Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat as
supercells develop and move off of the terrain this afternoon.
Isolated severe wind gusts will occur initially and become more
common as upscale growth occurs. A tornado or two could occur in a
mesoscale corridor. A watch is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to develop within the Laramie Range,
likely aided by a subtle, upstream shortwave trough. Farther south
into the Front Range, convection is much less robust so far. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and moist low levels away from the terrain
have allowed 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to develop in the High Plains. A
belt of strong mid-level winds will increase effective shear values
to 40-50 kts. Hodographs are quite long and straight throughout the
profile. Large to very-large (2-3 inches) hail will be the primary
concern with more isolated severe wind gusts initially. Wind gusts
could become more prominent as upscale growth occurs later in the
afternoon. There is a corridor of greater low-level shear along a
boundary from the Nebraska Panhandle into northwest Kansas. There is
also a very weak convergence zone evident on visible
satellite/surface observations. Storms in this zone would have a
greater potential for a tornado or two. A watch is likely for at
least some of the central High Plains with additional watches
possible as storms move south and east this evening.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9HoN23q87OR584y1ZLgC78bpif7FYPXRqvbUEOGre2Vtzq9U_zfuPAygbqT6aBnYW11iaAjxG=
0PtWINuTAz30F_Egi4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38770230 38580369 38940458 40820540 41400563 41890491
            42220389 42180261 40900122 40000066 39480046 38990107
            38770230=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.