Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1885
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 18:32:21

ACUS11 KWNS 071832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071831=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-071930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of far southeast New York into eastern
Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071831Z - 071930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the Mid
Atlantic into the Hudson Valley. Several damaging gusts are likely
and a couple of tornadoes and instances of large hail are also
possible. A WW issuance will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Clearing skies across the Mid Atlantic into the Hudson
Valley are promoting surface temperatures to exceed 80 F amid 70+ F
dewpoints. With 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area,
SBCAPE/MUCAPE is exceeding 2000 J/kg. As an upper trough and
associated stronger west-southwesterly flow aloft continues to
overspread the region, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear should
result, with elongated hodographs bearing slight low-level curvature
(evident via regional VADs and forecast soundings). A mix of
supercells and multicells are expected, with some upscale growth
into a QLCS likely later this afternoon. Several to potentially
numerous damaging gusts are likely, with at least isolated bouts of
severe hail possible with the more discrete, longer-lasting
supercells. Tornadoes may accompany any of the stronger supercells
or leading-line mesovortices. A WW issuance will be needed soon to
address the increasing severe threat.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7KLL9NdlZyIyWSYNb-CyNhcbZtq7JThS9evDZjHbzgCI2vR09qqWo69nt3xn9kkmK5Ts3iS-X=
CQ40ZTF4j1hkEc8bbQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38067585 40337605 41387601 42277622 42497613 42557563
            42387506 41977441 41607413 41377414 40687409 40087418
            39587440 38807491 38297520 38037549 38067585=20


=3D =3D =3D
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