Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1882
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 17:19:52

ACUS11 KWNS 071719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071719=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-071915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Western/central North Carolina...portions
western/northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071719Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Watches will likely be needed for parts of western/central
North and South Carolina. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large
hail will be possible region wide. The tornado threat will primarily
be in North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms are ongoing into parts of
eastern Tennessee. These storms could move into western North
Carolina by 19Z/3 PM EDT based on current tracking. Additional
storms seem probable within the southern Appalachians given
dewpoints near/above 70 F within the terrain. Strong heating has
occurred near the terrain with a lesser degree in central North
Carolina due to lingering stratocumulus. Given strong wind profiles
and the unstable airmass, organized convection is likely to impact
these areas this afternoon. Storms will be capable of
severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail. The tornado threat
will generally be maximized to the north and decrease the south as
stronger 850 mb winds will remain primarily into North Carolina.
Furthermore, timing of storms entering western South Carolina is
likely going to be later in the afternoon than farther north as
well. A watch is likely for much of these areas this afternoon. A
tornado watch is more likely into North Carolina with a severe
thunderstorm watch more probable later into South Carolina.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8e3VfpmtZxHnbFz6x1RUrqa5eLfUPrF2gNMoRKuA-6__pS3CUTJ4YbQ2VbB6JxrWS-H5CcTwn=
H16_JVzglhLYI6W380$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34727998 34528115 34278208 34278275 34568326 34968335
            35578273 36358137 36467982 36267905 35287935 34727998=20


=3D =3D =3D
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