Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 08:10:50

ACUS48 KWNS 070810
SWOD48
SPC AC 070809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A progressive pattern is forecast through the Day 4-8 period at
least across the northern tier of the U.S. Medium range guidance
depicts a series of shortwave mid/upper troughs migrating across the
northern Plains, Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast. Northwest
flow will persist from the central Plains into parts of the
Southeast, but deep-layer flow appears weaker than the past couple
of weeks across these areas. Some severe potential could develop
over parts of the Midwest around Day 4/5-Thu/Fri as an upper trough
moves east from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and a surface
front sweeps southeast. However, overlap of favorable instability
and stronger vertical shear may be out of phase. Quality of the warm
sector ahead of these features also is uncertain given several
periods of severe potential prior to the Day 4-8 period. Beyond Day
5/6-Fri/Sat, spread among forecast guidance increases quite a bit.
Overall, too much uncertainty exists to delineate 15 percent or
greater severe probabilities at this time.

...Leitman.. 08/07/2023

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