Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 07:12:19 ACUS03 KWNS 070712 SWODY3 SPC AC 070711 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity. ....Eastern KS/OK to the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity... A mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to shift east from the central High Plains to the Mid-South vicinity on Wednesday. Ahead of this main impulse, forecast guidance shows several vorticity maxima migrating through moderate west/northwesterly mid/upper flow from the Ozarks toward the TN Valley. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to meander over eastern KS/OK much of the day before shifting northeast to western OH by Thursday morning. A cold front will develop south/southeast across the central/southern Plains and Mid/Upper MS Valley, extending from western OH to northwest AR and the Red River vicinity by Thursday morning. A very moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will be in place. This will aid in strong destabilization across the region amid seasonally strong vertical shear, fostering a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential. Convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from eastern OK/KS into MO/AR as a continuation of an MCS from the Day 2/Tue period and on the nose of a weakening low-level jet. As a result, some uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective evolution. One round of severe thunderstorms could spread east from the Mid-MS Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity through the day into early evening. A second round of severe storms could then develop during the evening over the Ozarks vicinity as large-scale ascent increases and the surface cold front surges southeast. The main severe hazard appears to be damaging gusts. However, depending on convective evolution associated with morning activity and other mesoscale details that are currently uncertain, all severe hazards could be possible with some corridor within the broad Slight risk (level 2 of 5) needing higher probabilities eventually. ...Leitman.. 08/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .