Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 05:48:18 ACUS01 KWNS 070548 SWODY1 SPC AC 070546 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALABAMA AND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the eastern U.S. today, with the greatest risk across West Virginia, much of Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are anticipated. Concentrated areas of wind damage are also expected over parts of the southern Appalachians, including parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. ....From eastern KY/TN and OH across WV...VA...MD...DE...PA...NJ...southern NY... A complicated and active severe weather setup is forecast today, with severe storms likely starting relatively early possibly from southern OH across eastern KY and TN. The midlevel speed max is forecast to travel eastward roughly along the KY/TN border, with 500 mb speeds over 50 kt and 300 mb around 80 kt. Little heating will be required within the theta-e plume and beneath cooling temperatures aloft, and scattered storms are expected by around 18Z over these areas. Shear will favor supercells, and mesoscale factors such as potential residual outflows could enhance low-level shear, or, stabilize portions of the area. Existing storms as of 06Z Monday near the OH River will likely play a role into late/mid morning today. Otherwise the entire area extending eastward toward the Coast will destabilize ahead of the upper trough, with activity most likely moving strengthening across WV and moving rapidly eastward into PA, MD, and VA. Forecast soundings show the potential for a few supercells, with modest low-level SRH. However, tornado threat will depend on storm mode, and many models depict a squall line. Even so, QLCS-type tornadoes will be possible along with the widespread damaging winds. In addition, more isolated activity developing northward across NY may also yield a tornado or two, as shear will be favorable but with lesser instability. ....Eastern TN...AL...GA...Carolinas... Strengthening west to northwest winds around the upper trough and strong heating will likely lead to relatively widespread damaging wind potential as storms form from TN into northern MS and AL around midday. An expansion of storms producing outflow is likely across most of GA and parts of the Carolinas through the afternoon as this activity moves rapidly east/southeastward, possibly reaching the SC Coast before 00Z. ....Central High Plains... Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will exist from CO/WY into the central Plains, with a belt of 70+ kt winds at 300 mb across northern NM into OK/KS. At the surface, a weak ridge will exist over the central Plains, but lee troughing will develop during afternoon from western NE across eastern CO and into northeast NM. Storms producing large hail are likely to form off the Front Range and mature into severe storms producing hail and locally damaging gusts. Other storms will form from southeast CO into NM, similarly moving eastward across the Panhandles with lengthy hodographs favoring hail. ...Jewell.. 08/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .