Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1873
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 04:08:15

ACUS11 KWNS 070408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070407=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-070600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...Southeast IL...Southern IN...Northern KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 598...

Valid 070407Z - 070600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 598 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will spread toward the OH
River early this morning.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is forecast to strengthen across southern IN over
the next few hours as 500mb speed max rotates into the base of the
trough over southeast MO. This should contribute to some air mass
recovery across southern IN as the primary baroclinic zone has
advanced north of the OH River. Over the last hour or so, upstream
convection has grown upscale into a mature MCS that currently
extends across southwestern IN into southeast IL. Leading edge of
this activity is propagating southeast toward the OH River and
should progress through central into southeast parts of ww598 over
the next few hours. While hail is likely occurring with the more
robust updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS, it appears wind
may become the more dominant feature as the storm mode has evolved
beyond discrete supercells. Even so, strong shear favors rotation
and a brief tornado remains possible with embedded supercells.

...Darrow.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-vzhdPcaBh-C4R7L03Sj8UPdXwhEK4LbGkP8s02ul0k_9G_eek9MrXsC-JizSnuHpLC_h3VIJ=
P3rhLzoIFPQtnY8OOQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38368890 39138513 37948545 37838851 38368890=20


=3D =3D =3D
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