Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 01:11:46

ACUS01 KWNS 070111
SWODY1
SPC AC 070110

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST OHIO...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are most likely this evening over parts of the Ohio
Valley. Isolated severe storms may develop tonight extending
southwestward toward Arkansas, and from southeast Colorado into
northeast New Mexico.

....OH Valley and peripheral areas to the north and south...
A cluster of storms including isolated supercells persist this
evening over southern IL, with a history of tornadoes and hail. This
threat is expected to spread into parts of IN this evening, and
additional activity will be possible toward the OH River tonight as
the air mass remains unstable, and a westerly low-level jet noses
into the area. For more information see MCD 1870 and 1872.

Farther south toward AR, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg remains over this
region as well, with steep midlevel lapse rates in place. Models
suggest low-level confluence enhanced by the upper trough may
eventually lead to a few thunderstorms, and hail or locally gusty
winds could occur. As such, low severe probabilities have been left
across this region.

....Southern GA...
Several clusters of storms persist this evening from southeast AL
across southern GA, within a very moist and unstable air mass. The
00Z soundings from JAX shows MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with weak winds
aloft. A few strong to perhaps damaging gusts will remain possible
over the next 1-2 hours, before the boundary layer cools
sufficiently and/or outflow overturns the air mass.

...Jewell.. 08/07/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.