Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1872
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 00:56:45

ACUS11 KWNS 070056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070056=20
INZ000-ILZ000-070300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Southwest Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 597...

Valid 070056Z - 070300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 597 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will spread across southeast
IL into southwest IN this evening. A new watch is being strongly
considered immediately downstream to account for this evolving
threat.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across
southern IL toward southern IN as 500mb jet strengthens within the
base of the trough over the MO Ozarks. As a result, left exit region
of the jet is expected to encourage ongoing convection over IL to
spread/develop east-southeast as LLJ will strengthen ahead of the
short wave. Primary baroclinic zone should advance a bit north over
the next few hours so further destabilization is expected ahead of
this activity over southern IN. Ample shear/buoyancy continue to
favor some threat for supercells, including tornadoes/hail.

...Darrow.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6pbPXdD9N5pREi4-JUbNJHzgMEk2PoVbQKGP5iTQxH7Ry9CKVt6dp3lwlP3dvSUeN62xXLney=
gSAusarCpkepeHyrus$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39578890 39458632 38288649 38718961 39578890=20


=3D =3D =3D
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