Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1871
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 00:04:16

ACUS11 KWNS 070004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070003=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Ohio and far Northwest
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 070003Z - 070100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms ahead of a weak surface low
may intensify and pose a risk for a few damaging gusts or/a brief
tornado this evening.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 30-60 minutes, regional radar analysis
showed new convective development/intensification along a cold
front/wind shift across parts of northeastern OH. The environment
ahead of these storms is very moist and moderately unstable, with
surface dewpoints in the low 70s F and MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg. Deep-layer
vertical shear from area VADs is not overly strong, but backed
low-level flow along a weak warm front/lake breeze boundary was
supporting 0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2. Aided by the locally enhanced
shear, additional storm organization is possible along the lake
breeze/warm front boundary through the next couple of hours. A few
damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible with the most
organized storms. The longevity of the severe risk is uncertain as
the air mass farther northeast into northwest PA is more stable, and
should continue to remain so with the loss of diurnal heating. Given
the uncertainty a weather watch is unlikely, but convective trends
will be monitored.

...Lyons/Edwards.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9iQEwKpiVsbxjJdUbmWzPBWrfGJr2UgDQKxonEZEEfP4R5_Q5PQL5YhJCeMId_9Lex6O1sDYU=
6rkm3kwe5tqMusikYc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41318069 41078144 41068179 41188177 41768156 41968116
            42098062 42288016 42267975 42077980 41618023 41318069=20


=3D =3D =3D
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