Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1868
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 21:26:15

ACUS11 KWNS 062126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062125=20
COZ000-062330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...Central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062125Z - 062330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may materialize across
central Colorado if developing thunderstorms can become established.
Confidence in this scenario is uncertain, and the threat is expected
to remain sufficiently isolated to negate the need for a watch.
However, trends will be monitored given the strong environmental
shear.

DISCUSSION...Early attempts at supercell development within an
upslope flow regime are underway across the front range of central
CO per recent KFTG imagery. Lift away from the terrain is rather
meager, and a stout cap was sampled by recent ACAR soundings out of
Denver, CO. While lift and thermodynamic conditions are not overly
favorable for supercell sustenance away from the terrain,
environmental wind shear is very favorable for organized convection.
The same ACAR soundings sampled elongated, straight hodographs
featuring deep-layer shear on the order of 50-60 knots. This wind
profile favors storm splitting, which has already been observed with
a few early (though transient) cells. Additionally, a mid-level
baroclinic zone is noted in 700 mb analyses draped from central to
southeast CO. This may be a preferential corridor for supercell
propagation if shear-related pressure perturbations can compensate
for the modest thermodynamic environment and allow storm maturation.
If this occurs, supercells will be capable of very large hail and
severe winds. Confidence in the manifestation of this threat, as
well as the spatial coverage of storms, remains uncertain and
currently precludes watch issuance, but trends will continue to be
monitored.

...Moore/Edwards.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9wKSb3BfkvpbNRwRAYinNygvZYsigK_HYNxfHEBKMCisQS1F04CazdLRfevjYfum2dUzVzMPg=
Uy_8e0C-FDR_-hjT6w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38890511 39150542 39480555 39850548 40040533 40150499
            40110474 39270317 39020290 38680265 38370263 38050270
            37850299 37800335 38890511=20


=3D =3D =3D
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