Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1864
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 18:26:44

ACUS11 KWNS 061826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061826=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Iowa...northeastern
Missouri...west central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 061826Z - 062100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying scattered thunderstorm development is
possible by 3-5 PM CDT, including a few evolving supercell
structures posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Stronger recent destabilization has been occurring
across parts of east central and northeastern Missouri, largely in
response to modest boundary-layer warming and further moistening.=20
This is generally focused along/southwest of a confluence zone,
extending to the southeast of a weak surface low centered over
western Iowa, which may slowly continue to shift into and across the
Mississippi River vicinity through late afternoon.  As it does,
mixed-layer CAPE is forecast to increase in excess of 2000 J/kg,
with lingering mid-level inhibition slowly weakening.

At the same time, it appears that the exit region of a 50-60 kt,
cyclonic west-northwesterly mid-level jet (in the 700-500 mb layer)
will gradually overspread this axis of destabilization.  Associated
mid/upper forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear
likely will contribute to thunderstorm initiation and
intensification, with the environment becoming conducive to evolving
supercell structures.

Due to modest to weak low-level hodographs, tornadic potential, at
least initially, remains somewhat unclear.  However, given the moist
nature of the boundary-layer, a brief tornado or two may eventually
become possible as storms propagate southeastward, particularly
toward early evening when some strengthening of strengthening of
lower-level wind fields is forecast across west central into central
Illinois.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4OQMN9PYXbQoJJP3kHypUQyWVT753LPitNzM-AQABUhcSMM8tgW72zTveEOe2A2solDkKPNbm=
jBVevj_r9bL-FaJ0i4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40419247 40999280 41369286 41089184 39848988 39339057
            39539141 40419247=20


=3D =3D =3D
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