Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1863
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 17:11:43

ACUS11 KWNS 061711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061711=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-061845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Georgia into
western South Carolina and southwest North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061711Z - 061845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least some threat for damaging gusts will accompany the
stronger storms this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
is possible.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a recent uptick in
the intensity of convection across northern GA, with 30/50 dBZ cores
quickly exceeding 45/30 kft with some of the strongest storm cores.
90s/low-mid 70s F surface temperatures/dewpoints are contributing to
2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. While mid-level lapse rates are poorer
compared to points farther west, storms may still become strong
enough to support water-loaded storm cores and associated
downdraft/damaging gust potential. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance may be needed if confidence increases in more widespread,
intense thunderstorm coverage.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8oEbu1w4STLJ6rk-HpkJyJ6kCrBdJugdJ-GBDOljTxX7F5FU6ODGEPOnJ4Moc54FyUGuOGNXj=
6zlzhRXGEcNriMrjnQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33498407 35088288 35728222 35838168 35348081 34998067
            34058095 33028122 31978147 32008197 32358290 32698347
            33548413 33498407=20


=3D =3D =3D
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