Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1862
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 16:49:45

ACUS11 KWNS 061649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061649=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-061845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi into northern and
central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061649Z - 061845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are possible this afternoon in association
with multicellular storms. Convective trends are being monitored for
the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are exceeding 90 F amid upper 70s
F dewpoints across much of the Southeast due to clear skies/ample
diurnal heating. 12Z observed regional soundings and the latest
mesoanalysis showed mid-level lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km
overspreading the rich low-level airmass, which is contributing to
5000+ J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. While vertical wind shear is overall weak,
the extreme instability and around 2 inch PWATs should foster
strong, water-loaded updrafts/storm-cores, which may in turn produce
damaging gusts.=20

The main uncertainty at the moment is the timing of greater storm
coverage. MRMS mosaic radar data depicts a multicellular cluster of
storms in northern MS with 30/50 dBZ cores exceeding 60/45 kft,
suggesting that water-loaded storm cores may already be
materializing. These storms have developed a bit earlier than
simulated storm clusters in some of the latest high-resolution
convection allowing guidance. As such, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6P3v6VJM-_7giIpFM3JjEMVeSNMHPhfM3sJgbFm5vTCw8ozXOlvio-N5Syt77wm06iGcqF_oA=
Ky7KH4RFAFnWEbs1Ck$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32728839 33178894 33538938 33788979 34079002 34258996
            34678955 34958807 34908667 34668617 34178565 33638540
            33088536 32688561 32488594 32368636 32428701 32518768
            32718832 32728839=20


=3D =3D =3D
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