Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 08:01:40

ACUS48 KWNS 060801
SWOD48
SPC AC 060800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Day 4/Wed -- Ozarks to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys...

A mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to shift east from the
central/southern Plains to the Lower OH Valley vicinity on
Wednesday. There is some spread in guidance regarding how far east
the trough will progress by Thursday morning, and some additional
outlook changes are possible in coming days.

Ahead of the trough, strong vertical shear will overspread the
region atop a very moist/unstable boundary-layer. Thunderstorms may
be ongoing Wednesday morning, which lends some uncertainty to the
exact evolution/timing of severe storms. However, it appears
probable that convection will develop late afternoon across OK/KS.
This activity will shift east during the evening and organize into a
severe MCS on an increasing southerly low-level jet. A swath of
damaging wind appears possible across portions of the Ozarks
eastward toward western KY/TN.

....Days 5-8/Thu-Sun...

A series of mid/upper troughs are forecast to move across the
northern Plains/upper Great Lakes vicinity late in the week into the
weekend. There is quite a bit of spread among guidance regarding the
evolution of these systems (both timing and intensity).
Nevertheless, a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow appears likely to
persist over portions of the central CONUS atop a seasonally
moist/unstable airmass. This should foster some risk for severe
storms, but confidence is too low at this time to delineate 15
percent probabilities for any given location.

...Leitman.. 08/06/2023

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