Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1861
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 07:43:38

ACUS11 KWNS 060743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060742=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...Northern and Eastern Oklahoma...Far Northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 060742Z - 060945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue over the
next few hours across northern and eastern Oklahoma, possibly
affecting far northwest Arkansas later this morning. Wind damage
will be the primary threat. New weather watch issuance will need to
be considered, especially if cell organization increases.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Tulsa and
Vance Air Force Base show an MCS from northwest Oklahoma extending
east-southeastward to near Tulsa. This convection is located along
the northern edge of moderate instability, where an west-northwest
to east-southeast gradient of instability is analyzed. The MCS is
being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave
trough from central Kansas into western Oklahoma. Short-term
forecasts from the HRRR suggest the cells within the MCS will likely
maintain intensity and move east-southeastward into eastern Oklahoma
over the next few hours. In addition, the VWPs at Oklahoma City has
0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with substantial directional
shear in the low-levels. This wind profile will support an isolated
wind-damage threat with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. If a
cold pool can organize, then the wind-damage threat could increase,
possibly necessitating watch consideration.

...Broyles/Grams.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4kGe-9boWVCHZSFJUTFEKd0YKrV5x1sgoSW1K3TSkLoiHTxqoAGnJyzM_Ow7kQ_l3dh-lqMxp=
0QoVwLOs9A62Yxveko$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36659573 37099796 37089870 36809904 36399898 35969842
            35119666 34819563 34799484 34979427 35409406 35899405
            36369477 36659573=20


=3D =3D =3D
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