Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 07:15:08 ACUS03 KWNS 060715 SWODY3 SPC AC 060714 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central Plains, the Southeast and the Northeast on Tuesday. ....Central Plains... Moderately strong mid/upper west/northwesterly flow will persist over the central Plains on Tuesday. Multiple rounds of strong/severe convection appear possible, warranting a Slight risk (level 2 of 5). A more isolated risk may occur during the day, driven by diurnal heating and any linger surface boundaries/MCVs from the Day 2/Mon period. A better chance for more widespread, organized severe convection is expected during the evening/overnight as a midlevel shortwave trough ejects eastward across the northern/central Rockies and into the Plains. Thunderstorm clusters developing in moist, low-level upslope flow across western NE/CO may grow upscale as convection shifts east/southeast and a modest southerly low-level jet develops during the evening. Initially large hail and strong gusts will be possible, but potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts will increase with any upscale development. ....Northeast... A surface low will develop northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley while a trailing cold front sweeps east across New England. A very moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F. This will support at least modest destabilization ahead of the front. However, uncertainty in magnitude of severe potential exists as widespread showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning, in addition to widespread cloudiness. Some severe risk could accompany thunderstorms moving onshore in a strong warm advection regime, while another round of severe storms could develop along the cold front during the afternoon if enough destabilization occurs. Strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity. Aforementioned uncertainty will preclude higher than Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) probabilities at this time. ....Southeast vicinity... A surface boundary will be draped west to east from central MS toward coastal SC on Tuesday. A very moist/unstable airmass will reside ahead of this boundary. Meanwhile, a belt of 40-60 kt 500 mb westerly flow will persist. Thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk of damaging gusts during the afternoon and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included. Some uncertainty exists regarding impacts from convection in the Day 2/Mon time frame, and higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved. ...Leitman.. 08/06/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .