Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 06:44:37

ACUS01 KWNS 060644
SWODY1
SPC AC 060642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

CORRECTED SIG HAIL AREA

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today over parts
of the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging gusts will be
possible over much of the region, with damaging hail most likely
from eastern Missouri into Illinois.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move east/southeast from IA into IL through
the period, with a belt of 50 kt midlevel winds extending from KS
into the lower OH Valley. At the surface, low pressure will move
from IA into IL, with a cold front extending southwestward across MO
and into OK during the day. Preceding the main upper trough, a
leading disturbance will move slowly from IN into OH, with a
boundary near the OH Valley lifting north as a warm front into
central IL by 00Z. South of these areas, a moist and unstable air
mass will remain over much of the Southeast.

....AR eastward across the TN Valley...
Models indicate that areas of storms may be ongoing over parts of AR
this morning, with possible continuation and/or outflow pushing east
into MS, TN, and AL during the afternoon. Along with this possible
forcing mechanism, westerly winds aloft will also increase through
the period. Strong heating will occur over the region ahead of this
possible activity, and forecast soundings depict tall CAPE profiles
with ML values over 3000 J/kg. Clusters of thunderstorms thus appear
likely to redevelop during the afternoon, with locally damaging
outflow winds possible.

....Eastern IA and MO into IL...
Rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over central and
eastern IA early in the day near the surface low. This will likely
limit heating for much of this area. Farther south into MO and
eventually into central IL, strengthening westerly winds associated
with the upper trough will aid boundary-layer mixing with stronger
heating occurring. A deep-layer theta-e plume will likely develop
from MO into IL, with both wind and hail potential as storms develop
after about 20Z close to the IA/MO/IL border. Additional activity is
likely to develop along the cold front southward across the mid MS
Valley, with expanding storm coverage into much of IL, southern IN
and parts of KY during the evening. A few storms may produce
damaging hail over 2.00" diameter.

...Jewell/Moore.. 08/06/2023

$$

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