Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1860
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 06:06:07

ACUS11 KWNS 060606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060605=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Far Northeast
Oklahoma...Southwest Missouri...Far Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...

Valid 060605Z - 060800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue over
the next few hours, affecting far southeast Kansas, far northeast
Oklahoma, southwest Missouri and far northern Arkansas. As the
convection moves toward the edge of WW 594, a new watch will need to
be considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Tulsa
shows an MCS over much of eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma,
located in a moderately unstable airmass where the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The convection is being
supported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough evident
on water vapor imagery over central Kansas. In addition, the
Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP suggests that moderate deep-layer
shear is present across the Missouri portion of the Ozarks. The
Tulsa VWP suggests this is also true for northeast Oklahoma. Both
VWPs have 0-6 km near 35 knots with speed shear in the low to
mid-levels. The wind profiles should support a wind-damage threat
with the faster moving line segments on the edge of the MCS.
Although a temperature inversion will keep the wind-damage threat
somewhat isolated, the threat may persist into the late night hours,
affecting parts of the western Ozarks, where weather watch issuance
may be needed.

...Broyles.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Ziz3eaD78bgnN88ggFsxz03Lbf3uVO966ekZD5xnRQGJVWYvAX4Yt90FS54MTJc0vFKSY6Y7=
-OC3Kk08qQgFWPn3nY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37249221 37529255 37939381 38269615 37839654 37069682
            36579697 36189691 35939661 35789548 35639369 35789287
            35929267 36419225 36899218 37249221=20


=3D =3D =3D
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