Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1857
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 03:18:07

ACUS11 KWNS 060318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060317=20
IAZ000-060415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 060317Z - 060415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind threat will persist across central Iowa for
the next 1-2 hours; however, this threat will likely remain
sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An MCS has become fairly well-organized across
central/northwest IA over the past 1-2 hours with bowing segments
evident in KDMX imagery and a 49 knot wind gust reported from the
northern section of the line. This activity is expected to continue
propagating southeast into central IA along a diffuse warm frontal
zone/buoyancy gradient. VWP observations from KDMX and RAP forecast
soundings suggest effective bulk shear values are on the order of
25-30 knots. While not strong, this should be sufficient to maintain
the MCS for the next couple of hours as it approaches the periphery
of the buoyant air mass. Consequently, the potential for
severe/damaging winds should persist prior to weakening (which
should occur during the 05-07 UTC time frame). Clustered storms on
the southern end of the line currently show poor signs of cold pool
consolidation, but if this occurs a wind threat may emerge across
southwest to southern IA where buoyancy is more abundant (MLCAPE
values approaching 1500-2000 J/kg).

...Moore/Mosier.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6qtOdN0APHWIo8IG2v2GUXQ6VxTBsh9bDfjbNIgIj4t03SGQvOLTh1U-SJK6Kx2n8hm41Ry0I=
Pt0KzfaHubw2QbSVbs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41999539 42179500 42409480 42589469 42629429 42349305
            42149287 41779291 41439314 41099357 41019404 40909475
            41729570 41999539=20


=3D =3D =3D
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