Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 01:06:34 ACUS01 KWNS 060106 SWODY1 SPC AC 060104 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms remain most likely over the central Plains through tonight. A few severe storms remain possible over Indiana, and from northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. ....Eastern CO into KS, the OK/TX Panhandles and much of northern OK... Supercells with very large hail are ongoing over far southeast CO near the instability axis. This axis extends northeastward across much of western KS and into NE. Meanwhile, a relatively stable air mass remains over much of northern OK into southwest MO due to outflow and clouds from earlier today. Given strong mid to high level flow aloft over the central Plains, and steep lapse rates aloft, storms over CO and KS are still expected to pose a large hail and damaging wind threat through the evening, with a possible round of severe outflow winds overnight from northern OK into southern KS. Warm but somewhat drier air will spread north overnight with 30+ kt 850 winds out of the south, which could potentially aid outflow production and storm propagation overnight. As such, have maintained much of the Enhanced Risk through tonight despite the uncertainties regarding total instability. ....IN... Storms associated with an MCV persist this evening over central IN, with a plume of instability extending northeastward toward the center of rotation. Low-level shear remains favorable for rotating storms mainly from IND north, but instability also decreases with northward extent. Loss of heating will likely lead to weakening storm trends for the rest of the evening. ....Mid MO Valley... Scattered storms persist from northwest IA into eastern NE near a surface trough. A moist and unstable air mass exists south of the storm cluster, and veering winds with height may yield briefly rotating storms or a weak tornado. Marginal hail could also occur. Cold air aloft under the upper trough is also aiding thunderstorm development farther west behind the wind shift. The 00Z LBF soundings shows an uncapped air mass and 50 kt midlevel flow, which may aid hail in the stronger cells. ...Jewell.. 08/06/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .