Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1855
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 06 2023 00:54:35

ACUS11 KWNS 060054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060053=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Northwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

Valid 060053Z - 060300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds and perhaps a tornado or two
continues across northwest Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past 1-2 hours continue
to depict a combination of discrete cells and thunderstorm clusters
developing along a surface warm front and in the vicinity of a
surface low centered roughly over the Sioux Falls, SD region. Storm
motions to the east/northeast off the warm front and into a more
stable air mass have limited storm longevity thus far, but a few
cells have demonstrated transient low/mid-level mesocyclones per
KOAX and KFSD velocity imagery. The 00 UTC OAX sounding within the
warm sector sampled ample buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2100 J/kg) with some
veering of the wind profile in the lowest 2 km. This veering is
likely exacerbated over northwest IA where surface winds are out of
the east/southeast; however, buoyancy quickly diminishes within the
warm frontal zone as temperatures fall from the mid-80s to the 70s
with northeast extent. There is likely a spatial window along the
frontal zone across northwest IA where low-level thermodynamics and
kinematics are favorably supportive of a tornado threat. This
potential will most likely be realized by a cluster of discrete
cells ahead of a congealing line approaching from the west. However,
severe winds remain possible with a 71 mph wind gust noted over
within the past 2 hours.

...Moore.. 08/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-4B8gseUKA_oyJmq4DuzbXO4qv4-BIIr7SskLI7yVPWLHeeKT9TrKaBSpqvvjUU5yKBDPeobY=
DT0H_-IwcRxRg5tDOY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41609535 41619583 41759622 42839659 43199649 43329603
            43149549 42889508 42559492 42129482 41879481 41709501
            41609535=20


=3D =3D =3D
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