Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1853
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 23:50:05

ACUS11 KWNS 052349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052349=20
INZ000-060145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Central Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 592...

Valid 052349Z - 060145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 592 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two continues across central
Indiana where the buoyancy/shear parameter space remains favorable.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along a diffuse warm
front and trailing surface trough across central IN per recent radar
and surface analyses. Much of this activity has struggled to
maintain intensity, possibly due to a combination of meager buoyancy
profiles per modified RAP forecast soundings (MLCAPE at or below
1000 J/kg) and destructive storm interactions. However, the KIND VWP
continues to sample 0-1 km SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 from within the
open warm sector. This matches well with recent forecast soundings
and mesoanalyses, which depict an STP bullseye of 0.5 over central
IN. Although not a high-end environment, this is still sufficient
for a tornado or two given semi-discrete storm modes along the
surface trough and along the warm front. Therefore the tornado
threat is expected to continue for the next few hours.

...Moore.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5_whhsWBI_Kbp3sTYWmJcBvvhQR5PiTQfUlWSCNjkdumSVSLKPMXRLln6iti223ZunHblGaD3=
ZYfocd68b1_ATaSa4M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39338734 40408660 40648618 40638560 40488533 40158525
            39568552 39268586 39108624 39018670 39028705 39038724
            39128742 39258744 39338734=20


=3D =3D =3D
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