Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1848
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 22:03:03

ACUS11 KWNS 052202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052202=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Northwestern Iowa into adjacent areas of South
Dakota and Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

Valid 052202Z - 060000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two continues across
northwestern Iowa into adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and
northwest Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity over the mid-Missouri River
Valley continues to be focused along a surface warm front noted in
recent surface analysis. By most metrics, this convective intensity
has been muted with modest reflectivity values, transient lightning
pulses, and somewhat warm cloud top temperatures. However, cells
continue to take on supercellular characteristics early on in their
life cycle, and weak low to mid-level rotation is noted in KFSD
velocity data. KFSD VWP observations well north of the warm front
show 0-1 km SRH values near 200 m2/s2 where surface winds are
easterly. This is likely an overestimate for the what cells are
experiencing along the warm front (where winds are out of the
southeast). But taken in context of the velocity trends suggests
that SRH is likely sufficient to maintain a tornado threat for more
robust cells that can become established prior to moving into a more
stable air mass north/northeast of the warm front.

...Moore.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_d6sMhSbgMK9JLK_JmvnzwRDbyGC4WT3LAd_ALrbd2oQUabtwldvZOMGLoRhsZuZnRi1_vz7-=
qPohlrOLMZIe3KU5IY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41489551 41949588 42389633 42729702 43049721 43339697
            43289606 42879521 42589469 42119433 41599426 41289444
            41189467 41159502 41239529 41489551=20


=3D =3D =3D
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