Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 21:56:33 AWUS01 KWNH 052156 FFGMPD INZ000-060230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0873 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 555 PM EDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Areas affected...Northern & Central Indiana... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 052200Z - 060230Z SUMMARY...Efficient rainfall of 3"/3hrs still remains possible over central IND which may result in a few spots of FFG exceedance and possible flooding conditions. DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite suite depicts mature to slightly decaying MCS with well defined frontal structure matching 21z surface anlysis, as system lengthens occluded front from lagging surface low. Triple-point is shifting from Benton to White county and generally aligns with greatest moisture flux convergence given core of MCV still has over 2" of total PWats and remains feed by low 70s Tds. The warm front hasn't risen north very much and extends to generally near AID/MIE before angling toward HAO/MGY in SW Ohio. So while winds are strong with favorable veered profile (as seen in KIND VWP), there is a separation betwen the stronger dynamics/flux convergence and the greater unstable air across southern and central IND. Recent reports across Benton, N Warrent into Whire county still suggest 2"/hr and spots of 3-3.5" still exist generally matching HRFE 3"/3hr probability around 20-30% which ends after 00z moving eastward into the stable air. Hydrologically, grounds have been in longer term drought and suggest FFG values of 3"/3hr are in good standing. Yet, this brings the potential rainfall up to this limit, so spots of FFG exceedance remain possible but are likely to continue to limited in coverage and overall magnitude of flooding. Further south along the effective cold front, increased insolation has maintained a more buoyant environment with up to 1000 J/kg along/south of I-74. VWP shows 20-35kts from boundary layer through 700mb with solid veering suggests updrafts will have rotation. This is likely to further enhance moisture flux into updraft cores, and should support rates of 2-2.5"/hr. While duration is likely to be limited factor with these supercells along the line, the sub-hourly rates still may overcome this potential, espcially in/near urban centers. 18z HRRR, which has been generally a bit less agressive with totals, still estimates 15 minute rainfall totals of up to 1.5" through 23z, and up to 1" after 00z.=20=20 All in all, the risk for flash flooding continues to deminish but a random widely scattered incident still remains possible over the next few hours. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Qw7Wll_s-NxXNqaoQTexU86MkeKotaTtf1OBA3JurWd4Gh7RhyACAHkm94Tr98QYAY_= YUXfgvQCnKWzhaB1lLlcPxk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...IWX...LOT... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41328678 41268632 40998584 40718552 40378529=20 40048521 39798539 39448592 39238685 39398740=20 39818751 40278739 40568727 40808737 40968748=20 41208736=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .