Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 20:17:30 ACUS02 KWNS 052017 SWODY2 SPC AC 052015 Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER LINE ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday over portions of the Midwest and Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough now over the Dakotas will continue into the Midwest and parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys on Sunday. Multiple convectively augmented shortwave troughs/MCVs are expected to exist within the Great Lakes region as well as the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure systems are forecast within the Lower Great Lakes and the Mid-Missouri Valley. A cold front is expected to be moving through the southern Plains. A warm front will be present within the Ohio Valley into perhaps parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ....Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Confidence is highest in convection occurring with a shortwave trough/MCV that moves out of Nebraska/Iowa on Saturday night. Convection may be ongoing into parts of eastern Iowa/western Illinois early in the period. There is some uncertainty on the degree of destabilization as there will likely be some impact in the wake of two MCVs moving out of the area early in the period. The greatest amount of surface heating is still expected from parts of central/southern Illinois and southern Indiana southward into Tennessee. Storm coverage will be maximized near the MCV, but other development may occur farther south along the cold front as well. Strong/damaging wind gusts are the primary threat expected, but some large hail could occur as well. There could be a more concentrated area of wind damage potential in southern Illinois/Indiana, but confidence is too low for an increase in wind probabilities. ....Southeast... An MCV from convection in the southern Plains will move into the Mid-South/Southeast during the afternoon. Strong surface heating of a moist airmass and forcing from the MCV could promote development of a cluster of storms. The location of this activity is a bit uncertain, but wind damage risk is probable where development occurs given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates. ....Mid-Atlantic... An MCV is forecast to move out of eastern Kentucky/Tennessee. Given cloud cover expected with this feature, downstream destabilization is far from certain especially given the poor mid-level lapse rates expected. Isolated wind damage may occur with a few stronger storms. Should an area of greater surface heating/storm intensity become apparent, wind probabilities could be increased. ....Eastern Colorado... Moderate mid-level winds will persist across the Divide in the wake of the mid-level trough. Modestly moist post-frontal upslope flow may be enough to initiate a few strong storms. Wind profiles would favor some potential for at least small hail. Currently, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to a greater threat of large hail. Hail probabilities will be withheld for now. ...Wendt.. 08/05/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .