Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1847
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 20:16:30

ACUS11 KWNS 052016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052015=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-052145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052015Z - 052145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. A WW
issuance is possible if confidence increases in storm longevity.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies/strong surface heating have allowed
convective temperatures (i.e. around 100 F) to be reached, resulting
in robust initiation across western parts of the TX Panhandle. MRMS
mosaic radar imagery shows these storms have 50 dBZ cores
approaching 40 kft, with MESH already approaching 2 inches with the
strongest storms. Latest mesoanalysis and AMA VAD profiles show
hodographs with modest curvature and considerable elongation, which
are contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Regional radar
shows splitting supercell structures, and these storms will be
capable of producing severe wind and hail should they become
sustained. As such, a WW issuance my be needed pending convective
trends.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_0ZiL8i0Jkg8B_iabdI-aUETDRUzUPrJvhqXwB_nKlIUZNwCJqo1XlBrFEcRRUTo6w2SVKQfq=
tWvzDhB55rQhXYNshI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34140301 34920295 35960220 36560137 36800049 36470007
            35550006 34920031 34550085 34120172 34140301=20


=3D =3D =3D
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