Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 20:13:27

AWUS01 KWNH 052013
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-060030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0872
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Western Florida Panhandle...Southwest Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052010Z - 060030Z

SUMMARY...Efficient coastal cluster may grow upscale into
confluent/training complex over the next few hours with rates of
2.5-3"/hr and localized totals over 5" possible. Flash flooding is
considered likely given placement intersecting urban areas near
the coast.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a potent compact shortwave that
carved out a deeper large scale trof through the Southeast has
shifted off the Carolina coast leaving a trailing wave over NE
Florida.  As such, a subtle baroclinic zone has been formed across
the eastern portion of the FL peninsula that extends through a
solid low to mid-level depth of the troposphere.  While Tds at the
surface are in normal mid to upper 70s, a slug of enhanced
850-500mb moisture can be seen across the area of concern into the
northeastern Gulf.  CIRA LPW moisture Flux values are also
concentrated along this baroclinic zone into the developing
cluster in the vicinity of VPS, 100 kg/ms can be seen through
depth, though appear to be diminishing slightly.  Still, RAP
analysis depict a very unstable and remaining high deep layer
moisture with 2.25" TPW and 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE across SW AL
into the western Panhandle given temps in the mid-90s; this while
visible imagery shows upstream confluent cloud streets into from
this most unstable air to support back-building or at least the
potential for repeating of very intense rainfall rates.  Total
moisture availability/flux suggest rates of 2.5-3"/hr are likely
to be common with downdrafts.=20

Only limiting factor seems to be potential for westward
propagation due to stronger than normal outflow/cold pool
generation given the peak of the day heating (versus late evening
or overnight periods).  While RAP guidance suggests less than 5kts
of propagation, stronger cold pools may be a saving grace from the
potential for localized extreme totals.  Still, 2-3 hours of slow
moving efficient rainfall along/near the urban centers of the
coast may allow for localized totals over 5" perhaps even higher.=20
Will continue to monitor for any additional updates/short-term
worsening trends are to materialize.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_LDFZ27ZDn-RJfmEYbpYRBEHx3FUH31QRlrnD2_aygt5TS_-8wwHZIxtXWgOE9L7ddfr=
B29vKEiBxoLtFbAJINKm_j4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31968802 31798697 30708543 29948534 30138598=20
            30298673 30258739 30358765 30998815 31698827=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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