Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1846
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 19:34:02

ACUS11 KWNS 051933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051933=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri...adjacent western
Kentucky...western Tennessee...central and eastern
Arkansas...northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051933Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing strong thunderstorm development likely through
3-5 PM CDT, accompanied by locally strong wind gusts and perhaps
some hail.  The eventual evolution of an organizing cluster with
greater potential for damaging wind gusts is possible, and trends
are being  monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Beneath modest to weak (10-20) westerly deep-layer mean
flow, large mixed-layer CAPE is developing east through south of
modifying outflow from overnight convection.  This is being
supported by strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer
across much of southern and eastern Arkansas, where mixed-layer CAPE
appears on the order of 3000+ J/kg.

Inhibition associated with warm mid-level temperatures has already
weakened enough to allow for the initiation of widely scattered
strong thunderstorms.  This should persist and increase in coverage
during the next few hours, aided by forcing for ascent associated
with a digging mid-level short wave impulse, and perhaps remnant
embedded MCV.=20=20

It is possible that consolidating cold pools and upscale convective
growth may eventually result in an organizing cluster with
strengthening rear inflow and increasing potential for damaging wind
gusts while propagating eastward across the Mississippi River.=20
Until then, though, severe weather potential may remain fairly
sparse, in the form of locally downbursts and perhaps isolated
severe hail.

...Kerr/Smith.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_rDxNdYhZBa8-dMm0BLM0nKnBoFyMhGQhG_mQ3JLE9_UKJZivp1Lvft-bufwuvvNlB4hq8dIy=
XdNJYfizIPb0jSHU7M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34349321 34929199 35819082 36519072 37199028 36888852
            35188890 33169072 33269276 34349321=20


=3D =3D =3D
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