Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1845
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 19:11:31

ACUS11 KWNS 051911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051910=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...far southeast South Dakota...far eastern
Nebraska...extreme northwestern Iowa...extreme southwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051910Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is gradually increasing across portions
of the MO Valley. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes are possible. Convective trends are being monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Skies have been clearing ahead of a surface low, within
a confluence band, which roughly coincides the NE/IA/SD border area.
Along and just to the west of the confluence-band axis, surface
dewpoints are exceeding 70F, contributing to 2000 J/kg SBCAPE within
the warm sector, ahead of the surface low. Backed low-level winds
within the area of the confluence band is contributing to locally
stronger low-level shear across southeast SD into extreme northwest
IA. Here, the 1856Z FSD VAD shows an appreciably curved low-level
hodograph and 200 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. This low-level shear also
coincides the richer low-level moisture, supporting a localized
tornado threat. Farther southeast along the NE/IA border, up to 40
kts of effective bulk shear exists, which may support a couple of
supercells capable of damaging gusts or large hail.

Convective coverage is uncertain within the warm sector. As such,
convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW
issuance should more widespread storm development become apparent.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7CbnnXP0dnst9S-qwfKDzWoB3O6NC-wbiQUTW4OXNbfqSusKwYa8HCHtskxibBPrCPWHO7n-t=
imwomCExnsLEf8RGMQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42479788 43059822 43739842 44149849 44219797 44229712
            44149632 44029603 43449571 42729553 41609551 40889589
            40809610 41019643 41879717 42479788=20


=3D =3D =3D
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