Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1844
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 18:45:59

ACUS11 KWNS 051845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051845=20
INZ000-ILZ000-052115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...east central Ilinois into west central Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051845Z - 052115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears
increasingly likely through 3-5 PM CDT, accompanied by at least some
risk for a brief tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...A remnant, weakening MCV and associated surface low are
generally forecast to continue a very slow eastward progression
across the Bloomington, IL vicinity through late afternoon.  Within
the warm sector of the low, stronger recent destabilization has been
focused in a narrow corridor centered near the southern into central
Illinois/Indiana state border area, where mixed-layer CAPE appears
to be increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg, despite weak mid-level
lapse rates.  This has been supported by boundary-layer warming and
northward advection of seasonably moist air characterized by
lower/mid 70s F dew points.

While a warmer mid-level environment (including temps near or above
10 C around 700 mb) may tend to suppress convection southwest of a
line roughly from Mattoon, IL to Evansville, In, the initiation of
scattered thunderstorm development appears increasing probable to
the northeast of this line during the next few hours.  Although
vertical shear is generally modest across this region, 20-30 kt
flow, veering with height above the surface through
lower/mid-levels, may contribute to an environment conducive to the
development of low-level mesocyclones with the potential to produce
a brief tornado or two.

...Kerr/Smith.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!93gAN-2qIdk6FZlv34iYki5L94ZjOSllA6Q-NMfaYSxymo_eNlySxXfk238Bsm92aw778BEXU=
FqDTcdhYdU6O3NlaUM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40818803 40488703 39578633 39088657 38738701 38678783
            39488878 39988856 40818803=20


=3D =3D =3D
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