Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1843
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 18:44:59

ACUS11 KWNS 051844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051844=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...extreme northeast New
Mexico...western Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 051844Z - 052115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats, with 65+ kt gusts and up
to 3-4 inch diameter hail possible. A tornado or two also cannot be
ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be needed when
an uptick in convective coverage and intensity are noted.

DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies are in place, with surface
temperatures exceeding 80 F amid low 60s F dewpoints. A plume of 8+
C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading this warming/moistening
boundary layer, contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. 45+ kts of 500 mb
westerly winds atop weak southerly low-level flow supports 40+ kts
of effective bulk shear. The aforementioned combination of buoyancy
and shear will support supercells as the initial convective mode.
Given the deep-layer of steep lapse rates/high CAPE density
profiles, elongated hodographs, and a relatively moist 700-500
mb/2-4 km AGL hail-embryo-bearing layer (evident in pre-convective
forecast soundings), 2+ inch diameter hail is possible with the
stronger storms, and locally up to 3-4 inch diameter hail may occur.

In addition, a vertical-vorticity rich stationary boundary is
evident from Elbert to Yuma County, CO, coincident with over 100
J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE (per 18Z mesoanalysis). As such, a landspout
and/or a brief supercell hybrid tornado is possible with any mature,
sustained storm that can anchor to the boundary for an appreciable
period of time. Later this evening, storms are expected to merge
into an MCS. Intense cold pool mergers will support a severe wind
threat, and a couple of 65+ kt gusts could occur.

While cumulus continue to percolate along the aforementioned
boundary in central/northeast CO, robust convective initiation is
not yet evident. However, the development of several storms becomes
apparent, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-_v2z_hOCFLiroTxyKPCRR_FLWUhOGWgsBFnvaU7xs32IcrN7xm3qvqaEYOy261Ks8q7r_Z1J=
h-B4mFQIzhvbMPYgaM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36790393 37480429 38930429 39840409 40710332 41000276
            41040233 40780198 40340187 39660179 38740181 37970183
            37170212 36650247 36640328 36790393=20


=3D =3D =3D
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