Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1842
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 12:44:26

ACUS11 KWNS 051244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051243=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-051445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast Oklahoma...Northern
Arkanasas...Southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587...

Valid 051243Z - 051445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue with
an MCS moving through southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma over
the next few hours. The threat is expected to become marginal, and
weather watch issuance to the east of WW 587 appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Tulsa shows an
MCS located across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma, along an
axis of moderate instability where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The storm complex is being supported by
a shortwave trough, and associated vorticity maxima over central
Kansas. Ahead of the MCS, the WSR-88D VWP at Springfield, Missouri
has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots suggesting that an isolated
wind-damage threat will be possible over the next couple of hours.
However, a low-level temperature inversion evident on forecast
soundings will keep the convection mostly elevated. This should
temper the wind-damage threat as the MCS moves into the Ozarks this
morning. For this reason, weather watch issuance appears unlikely to
the east of WW 587 this morning.

...Broyles.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5N6d0EIH_qHDR7EKL_XvkM9uTa-Y9rwIjTaNOxwBTvZ26xv43lIWttHItvi5YYRKnm5P8hlv0=
IekIDClkbBNYZSlEx0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37869545 37819641 37469676 37039683 36609685 36269652
            36059576 35899440 35829305 35799224 35999176 36569148
            37189154 37609215 37719370 37869545=20


=3D =3D =3D
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