Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1841
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 09:12:25

ACUS11 KWNS 050912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050911=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-051115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050911Z - 051115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue across
parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma over the next few
hours. Weather watch issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Wichita,
Kansas shows a developing linear MCS over northwest Oklahoma and
southwest Kansas. This line will continue to move eastward along an
axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. The convective system is being supported by a
shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, the
WSR-88D VWP near Wichita has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots with
directional shear in the lowest 3 km above ground level. This wind
profile will likely support the a continued potential for wind
damage as the MCS moves eastward over the next few hours.

...Broyles/Grams.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-pcZb5EprfYpHgh7fMFEPCwxxP0dT8CASz-rEqffOfNOvUpE4gxZiC6GRUp_f5iCxbmd9ldn0=
0OMUXJuN1uVDTyL4nQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37379940 37809912 37999795 37799603 37499531 36899498
            36289506 35939598 36149718 36449886 36519923 36829941
            37379940=20


=3D =3D =3D
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