Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 09:06:26

ACUS48 KWNS 050906
SWOD48
SPC AC 050904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Tuesday/Day 4...
The northeast U.S. upper trough will lift northeast Tuesday as a
cold front extends from New England south/southwest across the
southeast U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible over a large area in
advance of the front, and at least low severe probabilities may be
needed in later outlooks as differences in the degree of
destabilization and favorable overlap with sufficient shear are
resolved.

Considerable differences exist regarding location/amplitude of the
upper trough moving into the central Plains, as well as the extent
of mid-level capping. Will defer introduction severe probabilities
to later outlooks given this uncertainty.

....Wednesday/Day 5...
A stronger signal for severe thunderstorms is apparent Wednesday to
the north of an east-west front over the Ozarks vicinity. Severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop north of the front as low-level
warm/moist advection increases along the eastern periphery of an
EML. Storms may grow upscale into a severe MCS while moving
east/southeast during the evening/overnight.

....Thursday/Day 6 and Beyond...
Thunderstorm potential will continue across much of the eastern and
southern U.S. towards the end of the week, however increasing spread
in model guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at
this extended range.

...Bunting.. 08/05/2023

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