Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 08:26:48 FOUS30 KWBC 050826 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 AM EDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023 - 12Z Sun Aug 06 2023 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS... ....Northern Plains... A Slight Risk remains in place across parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains as a vigorous vertically-stacked low makes its way eastward across much of the Northern Plains as a compact but vigorous vertically stacked low makes its way across the Dakotas and into Iowa and southern Minnesota by late this evening. An axis of 1.75 inch precipitable moisture plume will continue to wrap into the system...helping provide a sounding profile favorable for heavy rainfall and rainfall rates. Given operational model deterministic amounts...3 to 5 inch amounts somewhere in the Slight Risk area seems plausible and the HREF continues to be bullish. So some places may meet the criteria for Moderate risk area...but soils in the eastern Dakotas have been dry, which may allow for more efficient absorption of the heavy rain and instances of which are expected to be widely scattered. Saw little reason to alter the Slight Risk area that was extended as far south as Kansas City. ....Northern IL and northwest IN... A separate compact low that that has been moving across Missouri into far western Illinois during the overnight hours will continue to make its way eastward today...bringing the potential for several inches of rain along its path. Being small and compact...its slow forward motion is expected to continue with the risk of heavy to excessive rainfall as it taps deep moisture over portions of Illinois and Indiana.=20 ....Coastal S. Alabama and the western FL Panhandle... Maintained the Marginal Risk area introduced earlier...but downward trend noted in deterministic model QPF and the ensembles pointed to removal of the Slight Risk area. Convection is still expected to form along the sea breeze and an old frontal boundary...so this hardly telegraphs a dry forecast. But flooding or run off will be mainly a concern in urban areas and low lying areas with poor drainage.=20 Bann Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Bnj-M7IFdSmCy9lIFPFcXcFSgXOZMPBCV5TkIXERP1K= NIOFe6w9l7y8oYIj3xyQwAYNsC2Lm1O7pfIXwrwMGe0i7PI$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Bnj-M7IFdSmCy9lIFPFcXcFSgXOZMPBCV5TkIXERP1K= NIOFe6w9l7y8oYIj3xyQwAYNsC2Lm1O7pfIXwrwMX_ubXC0$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Bnj-M7IFdSmCy9lIFPFcXcFSgXOZMPBCV5TkIXERP1K= NIOFe6w9l7y8oYIj3xyQwAYNsC2Lm1O7pfIXwrwMzqeP4s0$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .