Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 08:18:18

AWUS01 KWNH 050818
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-051315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0868
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050813Z - 051315Z

SUMMARY...Outflow driven, pre-cold frontal thunderstorms will
continue to develop on a moisture axis and increasing upper
divergence over east-central CO to along the western KS/Neb border
into the morning hours. Repeating cells will continue to pose a
localized flash flood through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...An east-west oriented line of thunderstorms that
developed on outflow from earlier activity over northern Neb/SD
will continue to develop as it merely sags south through
east-central CO and northwestern KS, ahead of a cold front,
through the mid-morning. The storm orientation is parallel to the
20kt westerly deep layer mean flow and will allow continued
training of echoes. Furthermore, a westerly Pacific jet is
shifting into southern CO and this area will increasingly be in
the left exit region of this jet streak, aiding further
lift/redevelopment.

The moisture axis along the western KS/Neb border peaks around
1.4" PW with 20kt SSEly low level jet will continue to pump
Gulf-sourced moisture up the Plains and across northwest KS.
MUCAPE is generally 1000 to 2000 J/kg and cooling tops are still
seen in IR imagery. This area has been fairly wet over the past
few days with 3hr FFG generally 2" or less. Given the low FFG and
strong moisture feed with instability along with increasing upper
dynamics, there is a localized flash flood threat into the
mid-morning.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!61byeytNkl_SWtw_OS01lOVG5VAdsEMX1WyrCbwUUbEPbKTCeX-Rmi-pnD_gPANLh1Y2=
gHz0KsAwYXq28n79xGYHo9o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40130161 39960074 39719982 39129932 38289990=20
            38470160 38690260 39190358 39670356 39890343=20
            40120217=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.