Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 07:41:55

ACUS03 KWNS 050741
SWODY3
SPC AC 050740

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S....

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the
southern Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S.

....Mid-Atlantic/northeast...
As an upper-level trough moves slowly east across the region Monday,
latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests a favorably
sheared environment for organized severe storms including supercells
will exist over a rather large area from the southern Appalachians
northeast into the mid-Atlantic/northeast U.S.  Heating of a
seasonably moist boundary layer, combined with somewhat steeper
mid-level lapse rates associated with the eastern fringe of an EML
extending east from the southern Plains, will contribute to
moderate-strong MLCAPE across the area.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Monday over portions of PA/NY
and vicinity with a weak mid-level impulse and warm advection, and
lingering clouds/precipitation will likely influence the degree of
destabilization in these areas. Thunderstorms should
develop/intensify during the afternoon in advance of a cold front
aided by large-scale ascent, with both supercell and multicell storm
structures likely. Relatively long hodographs may support splitting
storms with a risk for large hail, and seasonably strong low-level
wind fields will favor scattered damaging gusts, especially where
low-level lapse rates are steepened through stronger heating. A risk
for a few tornadoes may also exist, especially across portions of
the mid-Atlantic and northeast where low-level hodograph curvature
is most pronounced.

Have opted to continue a broad 15%/Slight Risk area with this
outlook, however higher severe probabilities may ultimately be
warranted for portions of the area as mesoscale details come into
better focus.

....Central High Plains...
A Marginal Risk has been introduced over portions of CO/KS and
vicinity, and thunderstorms are expected to develop in a
post-frontal air mass with increasing low-level moisture.  Steep
mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints averaging upper 50s to near 60
deg F will contribute to moderate MLCAPE, and 40-50 kts of shear
will support supercells with isolated large hail. Damaging wind risk
may increase with time as storms evolve into a southeast-moving
cluster.

...Bunting.. 08/05/2023

$$

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