Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 06:03:26

ACUS02 KWNS 050603
SWODY2
SPC AC 050601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday over portions of the
Midwest and Ohio and Tennessee Valley region.

....Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Midwest...
A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday over
portions of IN/OH aided by ascent with a low-amplitude, convectively
influenced impulse and modest low-level warm advection. In the wake
of this MCS, some air mass recovery is expected as a seasonably
strong upper trough approaches late in the day. A series of
impulses, also convectively modulated, will move through the
west/southwesterly mid-level flow in association with the upper
trough. In tandem with the upper trough, a surface low and cold
front will move east across the western OH Valley Sunday while a
warm front extends east-west in the vicinity of the northern IN/OH.

Diurnal re-intensification/redevelopment of storms associated with
the morning MCS/remnant MCV is expected across portions of OH/WV/PA
and vicinity, with uncertainty regarding the degree of downstream
destabilization a limiting factor for higher severe probabilities
with this outlook. Pockets of MLCAPE of 1000-locally 1500 J/kg
appear possible, and southwesterly shear of 30-40 kts will support
organized storms. Isolated damaging winds should be the primary
severe hazard, and some tornado risk may evolve in the vicinity of a
weak surface low associated with the MCV.

Farther west, thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface
cold front and upper trough over eastern portions of IA/MO, where
ample instability and 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear will support
initial supercell structures capable of severe wind and hail.
Frontal forcing and large-scale ascent should result in transition
to a linear convective system with time posing a more prominent
damaging wind risk. Some tornado potential will also exist closer to
the surface low, where low-level shear should be maximized, and also
with QLCS circulations with the linear MCS. The severe threat should
continue into the evening hours aided by modest low-level warm
advection.

...Bunting.. 08/05/2023

$$

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