Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1840
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 04:41:24

ACUS11 KWNS 050441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050440=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-050645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Eastern CO into western KS and extreme southwest NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 050440Z - 050645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts
will be possible overnight. Watch issuance is currently considered
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of an earlier storm complex that is now
weakening over south-central NE, renewed storm development has been
noted north of the trailing outflow across northeast CO into far
southwest NE. Another strong storm complex is moving slowly eastward
across southeast CO. The southernmost complex may tend to weaken as
it moves into increasing MLCINH, but elevated storms will likely
increase in coverage overnight north of the outflow into eastern CO
and northwest KS, within a modest warm advection regime.=20

Steep midlevel lapse rates will be supportive of some hail risk with
the overnight elevated storms, though the coverage and duration of
the hail risk may be somewhat limited by a tendency for more of a
cluster or linear mode as storms increase in coverage. Storms will
eventually spread southeastward into a larger portion of western KS
overnight, though the potential for organized MCS development
appears limited due to the lack of a stronger low-level jet. Thus,
while isolated strong/severe gusts will be possible with any
forward-propagating cluster, coverage of the wind threat will likely
remain isolated as well.

...Dean/Mosier.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4dX3RT8YR5mULhR9JSlCFPop2hh2EqIn4Xq3rKp0QlT_muCp3-P5F93OVDFHjttMb2ZIc8Svz=
2-PqHthVTRANCCJVhc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40080284 40440064 39539958 38089980 37800038 37520102
            37440293 37840316 39130330 39720314 40080284=20


=3D =3D =3D
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