Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1839
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 02:09:54

ACUS11 KWNS 050209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050209=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-050345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Northwest KS into central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586...

Valid 050209Z - 050345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for occasional severe gusts and isolated hail
may continue into late evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection has evolved into a compact QLCS across
southwest NE into extreme northwest KS, with some measured severe
gusts recently noted across this area. While MLCINH will gradually
increase with time and eastward extent and eventually lead to a
weakening trend later tonight, rich low-level moisture and moderate
instability (with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) will help to sustain the
ongoing convection in the short term, with occasional severe gusts
remaining possible into late evening. There is some potential for a
severe-wind threat to approach the southeastern edge of WW 586, and
the need for possible local watch expansion will continue to be
monitored.=20

Farther north, convection has remained somewhat more discrete into
north-central NE. The stronger discrete cells have occasionally
produced large hail, and may continue to do so over the next 1-2
hours. Some consolidation of convection along the composite outflow
will be possible, which could briefly increase the severe-wind
threat before a general weakening trend later tonight.

...Dean.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!91j9VcYr8eJ13xScXGtGAwOTZy6N4scFgNJ06DTiYWnDiRIoZD4UkRDYBdfmIX3jzHj-Py-93=
IV2b1mPwOhMTbuqJ3M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   42900006 42669876 41879848 40619861 39689874 39319941
            39360025 39340085 39490146 39740162 40480092 41050060
            41680036 42900006=20


=3D =3D =3D
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