Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 00:58:53

ACUS01 KWNS 050058
SWODY1
SPC AC 050057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are most likely this evening over parts of the central
Plains and over central Missouri.

....Central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Scattered storms persist near a cold front from south-central SD
into NE, with a strong line of cells extending southward to the KS
border. Large hail and damaging gusts remain possible with these
storms driven mainly by substantial instability and steep lapse
rates.

To the east, a relatively isolated but strong cluster of storms
continues to move southeast across northern into central MO, near
the instability plume. Deep-layer shear around 40 kt associated with
the MCV and ample moisture will support a continued severe threat
within WW 585.

....Parts of NY into northeast PA/NJ...
Storms are decreasing in coverage with the loss of heating, but a
few strong cells persist within the low-level theta-e plume from
MD/PA border into southern NY. The 00Z OKX sounding shows around 45
kt effective shear which may sustain a severe cell or two producing
hail or a strong gusts. Otherwise, a downward trend is anticipated
beyond 01Z, necessitating lower probabilities.

...Jewell.. 08/05/2023

$$

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