Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1838
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 05 2023 00:48:20

ACUS11 KWNS 050048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050047=20
MOZ000-050245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...Central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585...

Valid 050047Z - 050245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of WW 585, but
will likely be focused over the next 1-2 hours along a surface warm
front where additional storm initiation is underway.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past hour have shown
little overall change in the mesoscale environment; however,
supercells continue to develop on the intersection of the surface
warm front and surface trough. A few of these cells have
demonstrated organized mesocyclones capable of producing tornadoes
(with at two tornadoes reported so far) prior to gradual weakening
via destructive storm interactions. These cells have also produced
strong winds with a couple of wind gust estimates upwards of 60 mph.
The expectation is for these threats to continue over the next 1-2
hours - especially as storms continue to develop along the warm
front where low-level helicity is locally augmented. While initial
supercells remain likely within this zone, the duration of any
individual cell remains uncertain given long residence within the
zone of ascent, which will continue to foster storm interactions.
With time, the MCV/thunderstorm cluster is expected to track to the
east/southeast as it rounds the apex of a buoyancy axis located over
central MO. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for an
extension of the watch across eastern MO later this evening.

...Moore.. 08/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6XSNXvu0HAcS6YhtJsGiFSd6nnQOP19xfDGql648_O4Rj7UzUgPaA8LmQ7-600KCD1wGhzNwc=
A2oTzeUlWH1MMqpOqI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38569328 38829351 39129344 39569326 39779262 39389119
            38869107 38279131 38129179 38249222 38569328=20


=3D =3D =3D
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